The USL League One playoffs kick off Friday with a pair of matches and The Hearts’ Beat is ready to make predictions.
Hopefully, we won’t embarrass ourselves too much!
First off, let’s take a look at the four playoff games scheduled for this weekend.
Quarterfinals (Tonight and Sunday)
No. 2 Union Omaha vs. No. 7 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Friday, Oct. 30, 7 p.m. ET, Morrison Stadium (ESPN+)
Season series: Omaha, 2-0-0 (May 23 at Omaha: Omaha 2, Chattanooga 0; Aug. 8 at Chattanooga: Omaha 3, Chattanooga 1)
Union Omaha (19-8-5)
Omaha is in the playoffs for a seventh straight season, a League One record, and has won the title twice (2021, 2024). The Owls led the table for much of the year but lost their grip in October. A 1-0 home loss to Fort Wayne on Oct. 10 was Omaha’s first home loss in 15 months, and Charlotte moved past Omaha into first.
Strengths: Home field and defense. Omaha went 11-1-4 at home and allowed 34 goals, second-fewest in the league. It doesn’t fold when it falls behind: Omaha earned a result in 8 of the 16 games in which it trailed, and won five of them.
Weaknesses: Breaking down a packed defense, which is exactly what Chattanooga brings. Omaha has no dominant scorer; Sergio Ors Navarro led the team with 12 goals.
Heat Check: Lukewarm. 2-2-1 in its last five. Omaha lost two straight in October, at home to Fort Wayne and at Westchester, which cost it first place. It finished with a 0-0 draw at Madison.
Chattanooga Red Wolves (14-13-5)
The Red Wolves are a former finalist (2022) and have playoff history with Omaha: they beat the Owls 1-0 in extra time in the 2022 playoffs. Chattanooga is happy to let opponents keep the ball. Omaha had at least 67 percent possession in both meetings this year.
Strengths: The counterattack, plus Omar Hernandez, who scored 13 goals. Chattanooga also comes back: its 12 points earned from losing positions ranked fourth in the league.
Weaknesses: The road (5-8-3) and defense (45 goals allowed). It lost both meetings with Omaha.
Heat Check: Cold. 1-3-1 in its last five, scoring four goals in those games. It clinched its playoff spot on the final day with a 1-1 draw at the Cosmos.
Prediction: Omaha advances.
No. 4 Forward Madison FC vs. No. 5 Spokane Velocity FC
Friday, Oct. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET, Breese Stevens Field (ESPN+)
Season series: Split, 1-1-0 (July 1 at Spokane: Madison 1, Spokane 0; Sept. 26 at Madison: Spokane 1, Madison 0)
Forward Madison (16-8-8)
The ’Mingos opened the season with an extended road trip while new turf was installed at Breese Stevens Field, and didn’t play a home league game until May 29. Once they got home, they became the league’s toughest defense: Madison allowed 30 goals in 32 games, the only team under one per game, and a top-10 mark in league history in the highest-scoring season the league has had.
Strengths: One of the best defenses in USL1 history, plus Ryan Carmichael, who scored 14 goals, third-most in the league. Madison went 9-1-6 at home.
Weaknesses: Its one home loss came against Spokane, and Madison drew six games at Breese Stevens. In a single-elimination game, those draws mean extra time and penalties.
Heat Check: Lukewarm on defense, cold on offense. 1-2-2 in its last five. It allowed only four goals in those games but also scored only four, and was held scoreless three times.
Spokane Velocity (16-10-6)
The Velocity are chasing a third straight League One Final appearance after losing in the championship match in 2024 and 2025.
Strengths: Balance. Nine players had five or more goal contributions, so Spokane doesn’t depend on any one player. It has already won at Madison this season.
Weaknesses: The road (5-7-4) and defense. Spokane allowed 44 goals, more than any top-five team except Charlotte, and has no double-digit scorer to win a close game against the league’s best defense.
Heat Check: Lukewarm. 2-2-1 in its last five, but up and down: a 4-3 loss at Greenville, a 3-3 draw at the Cosmos, and a 94th-minute 1-0 loss at Naples in the finale.
Prediction: Madison advances.
No. 1 Charlotte Independence vs. No. 8 FC Naples
Sunday, Nov. 1, 7 p.m. ET, American Legion Memorial Stadium (ESPN+)
Season series: Charlotte, 2-0-0 (won 5-1 at Naples on June 3 and 4-3 at home on June 13)
Charlotte Independence (20-6-6)
The Independence are the league powerhouse, smashing several scoring records along the way. Charlotte was the highest-scoring team in the history of USL1, demolishing the league’s single-season record for goals scored with 74. Not only that, the Independence have also scored goals at a higher rate than any team in USL1, a league whose seasons have ranged from 16 to 32 games.
Strengths: Scores more than anyone ever has in this league. Souaibou Marou won the Golden Boot with 18 goals, and Jon Bakero set a league single-season record with 18 assists. Charlotte was nearly perfect at home, 14-1-1.
Weaknesses: Defense. It allowed 46 goals, tied with Naples for the most among the eight playoff teams.
Heat Check: Warm. 3-1-1 in its last five. The Jacks won three straight to clinch the Players’ Shield, then lost 4-1 at Portland in the finale with nothing left to play for.
FC Naples (14-14-4)
Naples has won six straight games and hasn’t lost since early September. This was a monumental run for Naples as that early September loss left it in 13th place, five spots out of the playoffs.
Strengths: Momentum. It won its final six games and went unbeaten in its last eight to claim the final playoff spot. It’s 9-4-2 under interim coach Zak Gordon and wins tight games late.
Weaknesses: Road games (4-9-3). Naples scored 39 goals in 32 games, 1.22 per game, the fewest of the eight playoff teams. Against a Charlotte team that scored 74, Naples probably can’t win a high-scoring game. Even during the six-game winning streak, several wins came by one goal.
Heat Check: Scorching. 5-0-0 in its last five and six straight wins overall, the hottest team in the playoffs.
Prediction: Charlotte advances.
No. 3 Athletic Club Boise vs. No. 6 One Knoxville SC
Sunday, Nov. 1, 8 p.m. ET, Athletic Club Boise Soccer Stadium (ESPN+)
Season series: Knoxville, 1-0-1 (July 2 at Boise: Knoxville 2, Boise 1; Aug. 22 at Knoxville: Boise 2, Knoxville 2)
AC Boise (17-8-7)
Boise had one of the best expansion seasons in league history. It finished third, set league attendance records with 16 matches over 7,000 fans, and became the fifth team to make the playoffs in its first season. It will also be Boise’s only League One playoff run, because the club moves up to the USL Championship in 2027.
Strengths: Crosses and headers. Boise scored 11 headed goals, tied for the league lead, and completed 183 crosses, second-most in the league. It went 10-3-3 at home in front of the league’s biggest crowds.
Weaknesses: Knoxville and experience. Boise didn’t beat Knoxville in two tries despite outshooting it 32-15, and this is the club’s first playoff game.
Heat Check: Hot. 4-1-0 in its last five. After losing at Corpus Christi, Boise won four straight, including the 2-0 win at Fort Wayne that clinched a home playoff game.
One Knoxville (15-8-9)
The defending champions won both the Players’ Shield and the title in 2025, beating Spokane 2-0 in the final.
Strengths: Defense (36 goals allowed) and road play. Knoxville was better away (8-4-4) than at home. Denis Krioutchenkov scored 11 goals.
Weaknesses: Consistency. A three-game losing streak followed by a four-game winless run in midseason knocked Knoxville out of the race for first.
Heat Check: Lukewarm. 2-2-1 in its last five, alternating results all month. It closed with a 3-0 win at the Cosmos on Oct. 17 but hasn’t played since, so it’ll be coming off two weeks of rest.
Prediction: Boise advances.
Semifinals (Nov. 6-8)
No. 1 Charlotte Independence vs. No. 4 Forward Madison FC
Prediction: Madison advances.
No. 2 Union Omaha vs. No. 3 Athletic Club Boise
Prediction: Boise advances.
League One Final (Nov. 13-15)
No. 3 Athletic Club Boise vs. No. 4 Forward Madison FC
Prediction: Forward Madison wins the title.
Conclusion: Would this be the craziest result in USL1 history? Absolutely. No team seeded No. 4 or lower has won the final in the seven previous years that the league has held its playoffs. The 2020 final was canceled because of a COVID-19 outbreak, with the title awarded to No. 1 seed Greenville Triumph SC, while No. 3 seed South Georgia Tormenta FC took home the top prize in 2022. Otherwise, only the top two seeds have won the championship (No. 1 has won five times and No. 2 just once).
But over the last few weeks, we have watched a lot of recorded games from throughout the season. Madison plays a suffocating defensive style that limits shots (it allowed the fewest shots in the league), while also tying for the third-most goals. Meanwhile, Boise has been on a roll, winners of four straight, and just seems to have a lot going right for it.
There’s an easy argument for Charlotte to roll through the playoffs. It has been USL1’s best team, and the squad is deep and clearly remains lethal offensively. But the Independence defense can be spotty. Charlotte also got banged up in the final game of the season at Portland with two starters going down with injuries, although there has been no update on their status.
Enough of the predictions. Time to settle it on the pitch.