If the Portland Hearts of Pine want to break their five-game winless streak, Step 1 could be to score first. In the team’s last two games, the opponent has tallied the first goal each time. It’s been a trend for much of the season: in Portland’s 10 home games this season, the Hearts have only scored first four times.
“Eighty percent of teams who score first in matches go on to win them,” is a comment long attributed to former English footballer turned-Tottenham Hotspur F.C. manager turned-British soccer commentator David Pleat.
Of course, in true Pleat style, he is noted for following up with: “But they may draw some. Or occasionally lose....”
Despite the Yogi Berra-esque delivery, Pleat’s observation isn’t far off although it’s not exactly what the study found that he was likely citing. A 2016 report in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport took a look at the 2014-15 season in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1. Researchers found home teams scored first in 58% of matches and went on to claim nearly 85% of the available points in those games. Away teams that struck first still claimed just over 76% of subsequent points.
The resulting play for many teams that go down a goal is obvious. Players sometimes start pushing, stepping outside of their defensive shape, or forcing themselves to play beyond their normal style, all of which leads to mistakes. Managers may start pressing players or change the tactics that their team had focused on in practice for the previous week.
None of these actions help teams to steady themselves; oftentimes, teams concede another goal. That was the case this past Sunday when Portland fell behind 2-0 and spent the rest of the clock feverishly chasing the game, only to come up short 2-1.
Portland needs to be careful in Wednesday night’s game against One Knoxville SC. One Knox (as the team is known by its fans) has scored first in six of its last 10 games and has a record of 6-3-1, helping the 2025 defending champions climb into fourth place in the USL League One standings. Over the same time period, the Hearts have endured a 2-5-3 run that has dropped them into 12th (top eight make the playoffs).
From the Hearts’ perspective, it’s time to start winning games, which unfortunately they have never done against One Knox. Portland has a 0-2-2 record over the past 1.5 years, including a 0-0 tie in its April home opener at Fitzpatrick Stadium.
Playing in Knoxville is never a treat. One Knox also won last year’s Player’s Shield as the top point-getter for the regular season while going undefeated at home. It was only the fourth time a club has won both the regular season and playoffs in USL One history. In the championship game, One Knox emerged victorious before a League One-record crowd of 7,500 fans at Covenant Health Park in Tennessee.
This season, One Knox is 6-3-1 at home, while the Hearts are 2-5-3 on the road.
One last interesting nugget of information: One Knox won a game last month after the referee gave a red card to a Fort Wayne player for a foul only three seconds into the game! It’s believed to be the quickest red card issued in USL League One history.
Stats to Know:
Portland Hearts of Pine: 5-9-6 (21 points)
One Knoxville SC: 11-5-4 (37 points)
Leading Scorer: Portland - Aboubacar Camara (6 goals)
One Knox - Denis Krioutchenkov (7 goals)
Leading Passer: Portland - Ollie Wright (7 assists)
One Knox - Teddy Baker (5 assists)
Match History:
May 4, 2025: Portland Hearts of Pine 1, One Knoxville SC 1
August 2, 2025: One Knoxville SC 1, Portland Hearts of Pine 0
October 10, 2025: One Knoxville SC 3, Portland Hearts of Pine 1
April 11, 2026: Portland Hearts of Pine 0, One Knoxville SC 0
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