PORTLAND, Maine – So you’re saying there’s a chance…
This ridiculously oft-used phrase from the film “Dumb and Dumber” has probably been shared online a few million times when comically discussing something that has a chance to happen, but is not very likely.
Fresh off a two-match winning streak, the Portland Hearts of Pine sound ready to thrust themselves into the playoff discussion as the USL League 1 season races toward the regular season’s finish line.
“Mathematically it’s definitely possible, I’ve looked at all the scenarios,” said Brecc Evans, Portland’s center back, after Sunday night’s victory over AV Alta. “The belief is very high in the group. I don’t think it was ever super low, but now it’s even higher than it was before.”
Midfielder Diego Letayf Escutia added: “Once the snowball gets going… We still really believe and want to give it everything for the fans and this community.”
Let’s take a look at the chances. First, we should examine the race to take the final spot in the USL1 playoffs. Eight teams make the playoffs.
Now, let’s acknowledge some things. The Hearts are in 11th place, seven points behind eighth-place Fort Wayne FC. With six games in hand, if Portland were to win out, the maximum total for points would be 18. Winning all six games seems more than improbable. That means Chattanooga and Spokane are likely too far in front to be caught. Both have 39 points. Portland has 29 points. Chattanooga and Spokane have also played fewer games: Chattanooga has two fewer and Spokane has somehow played four games fewer.
With the premise that at best, Portland can reach eighth place, the only teams that need to be considered here are Fort Wayne, Alta, Corpus Christi FC, and the Hearts.
Let’s then take a look at the average per game points total each of the teams has garnered this season.
📊 2026 Season: Points Per Game (PPG) Average
(Calculated by total league points divided by total games played)
Fort Wayne FC: 1.50 ppg (36 pts / 24 games)
Corpus Christi FC: 1.20 ppg (30 pts / 25 games)
AV Alta FC: 1.19 ppg (32 pts / 27 games)
Portland Hearts of Pine: 1.12 ppg (29 pts / 26 games)
Fort Wayne has been operating at a higher rate than others in USL League One’s history among teams snagging a final playoff spot. Over the past four years, the last team to win a playoff spot has averaged 1.26 ppg. This lower floor occurred because the league was smaller and allowed a higher percentage of its teams into the postseason. However, with league expansion squeezing the playoff bracket in 2026, the point requirement has skyrocketed well past that historical baseline.
With eight games left, Fort Wayne’s current average 1.5 ppg would give it 12 points and bring its total points for the season to 48 points. If Portland won all six games, the 18 points would bring its season total to 47, which means Fort Wayne has to stumble from its current rate for the Hearts to even have a chance.
If Portland and Fort Wayne ended up with the same point total for the season, the tiebreaking system has six categories. The first is total wins (Portland has seven while Fort Wayne has 10). The second category is goal differential (Portland is at -7 while Fort Wayne is +8. Next is total goals (Portland has 38 while Fort Wayne has 37). It seems unnecessary to dig deeper on additional categories because it’s likely either of the two teams would win one of those three categories by that point.
Now, let’s look at the schedule:
The USL League One Playoff Bubble Gauntlet
(Note: Bolded/italics teams indicate home matches for the listed club)
Fort Wayne FC (8th Place, 36 pts)
Games Remaining: 8
Remaining Path: One Knoxville SC, FC Naples, Charlotte Independence, Forward Madison FC, Corpus Christi FC, Union Omaha, Sarasota Paradise, Athletic Club Boise
Playoff Teams Remaining: 5
AV Alta FC (9th Place, 32 pts)
Games Remaining: 5
Remaining Path: Forward Madison FC, Westchester SC, Greenville Triumph SC, Athletic Club Boise, Corpus Christi FC
Playoff Teams Remaining: 2
Corpus Christi FC (10th Place, 30 pts)
Games Remaining: 7
Remaining Path: Greenville Triumph SC, Athletic Club Boise, Chattanooga Red Wolves SC, Fort Wayne FC, FC Naples, Richmond Kickers, AV Alta FC
Playoff Teams Remaining: 3
Portland Hearts of Pine (11th Place, 29 pts)
Games Remaining: 6
Remaining Path: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC, Sarasota Paradise, Spokane Velocity FC, Athletic Club Boise, Forward Madison FC, Charlotte Independence
Playoff Teams Remaining: 5
Portland and Fort Wayne have tougher routes as both have the most games remaining (five) against teams currently in the playoffs. But with eight total games left, Fort Wayne also has three matches against non-playoff teams while Portland only has one.
Fort Wayne has the most home games (five) remaining, where overall it is 5-3-3 this season. Both Alta and Corpus Christi have more road games than home matches, while Portland has three home and three away.
Now let’s look at how the teams are playing.
Fort Wayne slumped in the midseason with four straight losses but broke its streak with a 4-1 win against Portland on August 29 at Fitzpatrick Stadium and overall has won three matches and lost two in its last five games.
Alta has lost five straight matches while Corpus Christi has gone 1-3-1.
Portland has won two straight, which should be three but the Hearts collapsed on the road against Charlotte and gave up the game-tying and game-winning goals in the final three minutes of stoppage time. Overall, Portland is 2-2-1 during its recent five-game stretch.
What does this say about the four teams’ forms? Portland may well be playing the best at the moment while Alta is definitely playing the worst. Fort Wayne has been up and down but did win last weekend on the road.
Where does that leave Portland? Honestly, in a lot of trouble, if only based on the math. If Portland hadn’t fallen apart in that game at Charlotte, the opportunity to make a run when only being four points back might have been reasonable.
On a lark, we asked two artificial intelligence platforms to quantify Portland’s playoff chances.
Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, estimated Portland’s chances between 3% and 5%, while stating: “Portland needs to both close a real points gap and leapfrog at least two-three teams (Fort Wayne, AV Alta, Corpus Christi) while playing the hardest remaining slate of anyone in the bottom half of the table.”
Google’s Gemini put the chances at less than 5% before adding, “To make the postseason, the Hearts of Pine must essentially play flawless, championship-caliber soccer for the next month, while simultaneously rooting for a total collapse from the teams directly above them in the standings.”
While we here at The Hearts’ Beat are absolutely not math experts, we do know that 3% or 4% are far better odds than one in a million. Most importantly, sports aren’t played in mathematical computations; they are played on the field. Otherwise, no one would remember the 1980 U.S. Hockey team, the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, Buster Douglas, and definitely not 2015 Leicester City.